Articles

The Russian-Ukrainian war has fundamentally transformed naval combat operations. Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs) have been deployed extensively—first as kamikaze drones, then expanding to roles including reconnaissance, mine laying, and carrying remotely operated 12.7mm anti-aircraft machine guns, surface-to-air missiles, rocket projectiles, FPV drones, and combat lasers. Ukraine’s innovative approach allowed it to seize the maritime initiative as early as 2022, shifting the balance in its favor.

In July 2025, a total of 50 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 7.4 million tons of oil, including 6 million tons to the EU and 1.4 mln tons to other countries.

In July 2025, 14 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) from the Black Sea were recorded. 11 of violations involved the delivery of petroleum products to a transshipment points off the coasts of Greece, Romania and Cyprus. 3 direct voyages were made to the ports of the EU countries. In July 2025, 466.835 tons of Russian petroleum products were delivered in violation of the embargo.

In July 2025, 5 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Black Sea were recorded. Two of them were involved the delivery of crude oil to the ports of the EU countries. Three voyages were made to the transshipment points near the EU ports. In July 2025, a total of 439.684 tons of Russian crude oil were delivered to the EU in violation of the embargo.

In July 2025, 194 violations of the export of Russian crude oil and petroleum products from the Black Sea were recorded. Almost 14.4 mln tons of Russian crude oil, Kazakh crude oil by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and petroleum products were delivered through the Russian ports of the Black Sea.

In July 2025, 4 violations (236.395 tons) of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) to the transshipment points and EU/US ports from the Baltic Sea were recorded. The voyages were made by tankers belonging to shipowners registered in Greece, Turkey, China and Bangladesh.

In July 2025, 4 violations (392.287 tons) of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Baltic Sea were recorded. The voyages were made by tankers belonging to shipowners registered in Greece and China.

In July 2025, 149 violations of the export of Russian crude oil and petroleum products from the Baltic Sea were recorded. 13.2 mln tons of Russian crude oil and petroleum products were delivered through the Russian ports of the Baltic Sea.

After the success of Ukrainian maritime unmanned vehicles (in official Ukrainian terminology: MBUA — Maritime Uncrewed Vehicles) in the Black Sea — which drove the Russian fleet into the port of Novorossiysk and even forced some vessels to withdraw to the Caspian Sea — Russia has, quite naturally, initiated efforts to replicate Ukraine’s approach. Russian Federation is now vigorously integrating unmanned maritime assets into its naval forces.

In January-June 2025 Russian military attacked the ports of Greater Odesa involved in the export corridor operation, and Odesa Oblast 70 times, using no less than: 25 CM and BM Iskander missiles; 5 Kh-59/Kh-69 ASMs; 10 Kh-31P ARMs; 1 Kalibr SLCMs; 4 Onyx AShM; 450 strike and decoy UAVs.

On the occasion of the Ukraine Recovery Conference that was held in Rome on 10–11 July 2025, the Centre for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge, in partnership with ECFR, CREA, and LUISS, was honoured to host a high-level roundtable titled “Breaking the Chain: Countering Shadow Fleet Operations in Europe’s Strategic Waterways”. The event contributed to the wider Ukraine Recovery Conference by examining a critical dimension of Russia’s war against Ukraine: the economic infrastructure underlying the conflict and the maritime security challenges it creates for Europe. Drawing on the latest data and expert insights, the discussion analyzed the effectiveness of existing economic measures targeting Russia and their implications for conflict resolution and European security.

In June 2025, 9 violations (383.952 tons) of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) to the transshipment points and EU/US ports from the Baltic Sea were recorded. The voyages were made by tankers belonging to shipowners registered in Greece, Singapore, Turkey, UAE, China and Panama.

In June 2025, 6 violations (640.568 tons) of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Baltic Sea were recorded. The voyages were made by tankers belonging to shipowners registered in Greece, UAE, Turkey and China.

In June 2025, 156 violations of the export of Russian crude oil and petroleum products from the Baltic Sea were recorded. 13.9 mln tons of Russian crude oil and petroleum products were delivered through the Russian ports of the Baltic Sea.

In June 2025, a total of 45 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 6.5 million tons of oil, including 5.7 million tons to the EU and 800.736 tons to other countries.