Latest Articles

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The "grain corridor" in the Black Sea in September-December 2022. Important statistics

22 January 2023
The average number of vessels arriving per day at the ports of Odesa as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is one of the indicators of military risks. In September 2022, it was 5.9 vessels per day; in October – 5.1; in November – 3.3; and in December – 3.2. That is, in November, as a result of Russia’s deliberate actions, the number of vessels receiving permits for voyages to Ukrainian ports almost halved. Blocking the "grain corridor" remains an integral part of Putin's plan for a new stage of the war. That is, in the event of a new Russian offensive, the "grain corridor" may be blocked.
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Russia’s Black Sea crude oil exports to EU countries in December 2022 – early January 2023. The first violations of the embargo

13 January 2023
In December 2022, despite the embargo that came into effect on 5 December 2022, there wasn’t any significant decline in maritime exports of Russia’s crude oil from the Black Sea to EU countries. The volume of exports remained at the level of 1 million tons, the same as in November 2022. The volume of Russia’s Black Sea crude oil exports to EU countries, starting from the embargo date of 5 December 2022, even increased slightly: it amounted to about 560,000 tons - or 55% of the total volume of Russia’s Black Sea crude oil exports to EU countries in December 2022. The shipowners of all oil tankers that arrived with a cargo of Russian crude oil in EU countries in violation of the embargo in December 2022 are companies registered in Greece.
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The last days before the embargo. Russia’s Black Sea crude oil exports in November 2022

15 December 2022
After the June 2022 decision on the future EU embargo, during the 6-month transition period, nine EU countries and the US together imported 9.3 million tons of Russian crude oil at the estimated total cost of $5.3 billion or about $0.9 billion per month. Consequently, after the embargo kicks in, assuming that Russia doesn’t find alternative buyers for its Black Sea oil, its future unearned income can be roughly estimated at the same level. Following the EU decision on sanctioning Russian maritime crude oil export starting December 5, 2022, in November, the total volume of Russia’s maritime crude oil export experienced a significant drop by almost 1 million tons.

Russian Blood-Soaked Export

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Russia’s crude oil exports from the Black Sea in April-October 2022 (2)

08 November 2022
Following the EU decision to introduce sanctions on the maritime export of Russian crude oil starting December 5, 2022 — Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 of June 3, 2022 — we’ve observed the following trends: retention of the total volume of Russian crude oil Black Sea exports at 3.5 million tons; certain decrease in exports to EU countries; generally unsuccessful attempts of Russia to replace exports to the EU with those to other countries. The much talked about in the media reorientation of the crude oil exports to India and China, in fact, hasn’t materialized. A month before the introduction of sanctions, Russia has been able to compensate for only up to 4% of its crude oil exports to EU countries.

Militarization of the Black Sea

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The presence of Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea as of 6 November 2022

06 November 2022
As we have predicted earlier, Russia continues the reduction and rotation of its naval group in the Mediterranean. On 16 October 2022, 2 missile corvettes of the Russian Baltic Fleet - (531) Soobrazitelnyi and (545) Stoikiy - entered the Mediterranean Sea through the Strait of Gibraltar. On 21 October 2022, the missile cruiser (011) Varyag, the flagship of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation (PF), the large anti-submarine ship (564) Admiral Tributs (PF), and the oil tanker/supply ship Boris Butoma left the Mediterranean Sea through the Suez Canal.

Crimea Under Occupation

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Production of military products at the captured plants of occupied Crimea in 2014-2022

03 November 2022
Russia’s failures in the all-out war against Ukraine and the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have turned the Crimean Peninsula not only into a region near the frontline but also into an area of limited hostilities. This has created a fundamentally new reality in occupied Crimea — the anticipation of the Ukrainian offensive on the occupied peninsula, which affects all spheres of life there. These factors have put an end to the prospects of the Crimean economy sectors that under the occupation had been considered the primary ones — first of all, the defence industry.

Databases

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Russia’s crude oil exports from the Black Sea in April-October 2022 (2)

08 November 2022
Following the EU decision to introduce sanctions on the maritime export of Russian crude oil starting December 5, 2022 — Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 of June 3, 2022 — we’ve observed the following trends: retention of the total volume of Russian crude oil Black Sea exports at 3.5 million tons; certain decrease in exports to EU countries; generally unsuccessful attempts of Russia to replace exports to the EU with those to other countries. The much talked about in the media reorientation of the crude oil exports to India and China, in fact, hasn’t materialized. A month before the introduction of sanctions, Russia has been able to compensate for only up to 4% of its crude oil exports to EU countries.