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For centuries, the Black Sea has been a strategic crossroads of global trade and power. Linking the Eurasian continent to the Mediterranean and beyond, it has served as a commercial artery and a geopolitical fault line. The presence of a strong Russian fleet will perpetually threaten shipping, ports, and infrastructure. It will always provide Moscow with a lever for the coercion of Ukraine and Europe.

From February 2022 through April 2026, the Defense Forces of Ukraine carried out at least 62 successful attacks on Russian warships in the Black and Azov Seas, in ports and at sea, using missiles, small unmanned surface vessels, and UAVs.

According to the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies, since the start of the full‑scale war ETHERA has completed 10 voyages, moving about 460,000 tons of Russian oil products to ports in Turkey, Morocco, and Brazil, as well as to STS transfer areas near EU coasts (Greece and Cyprus). It loaded at Russian ports in the Black Sea (Novorossiysk, Taman, and an offshore STS zone south of the Kerch Strait) and in the Baltic (Primorsk, Ust‑Luga, Saint Petersburg).

Despite Western sanctions, Russia managed to maintain operational civil aviation throughout 2025 by relying on parallel import networks in countries that did not impose sanctions restrictions. While the UAE, Turkey, and China served as primary transit hubs during 2022–2024, new enforcement measures in late 2024 prompted corresponding modifications to Russia's evasion schemes. Specifically, by 2025, India had emerged as the principal channel with documented shipments exceeding $50 million, routes through Central Asia and the Caucasus proliferated via multi-jurisdictional corporate chains, and intermediaries increasingly shifted business models and jurisdictions to evade detection. This report documents the specific trends and developments of 2025 against the baseline sanctions-evasion architecture established during 2022–2024.

In December 2025, a total of 25 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Together they exported a total of about 3.8 million tons of oil, including 3.1 million tons to the EU and 739 thousands tons to other countries.

In December 2025, 13 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) from the Black Sea were recorded. 11 of violations involved the delivery of petroleum products to a transshipment points off the coasts of Cyprus and Romania. 2 direct voyages were made to the ports of the US. In December 2025, 506.897 tons of Russian petroleum products were delivered in violation of the embargo.

In December 2025, 10 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Black Sea were recorded. Eight of them were involved the delivery of crude oil to the ports of the EU countries. Two voyages were made to the transshipment points near the EU ports. In December 2025, a total of 1.291.785 tons of Russian crude oil were delivered to the EU in violation of the embargo.

In December 2025, 177 violations of the export of Russian crude oil and petroleum products from the Black Sea were recorded. Almost 12.7 mln tons of Russian crude oil, Kazakh crude oil by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and petroleum products were delivered through the Russian ports of the Black Sea.

Between January--December 2025, Russian military attacked the ports of Greater Odesa involved in the export corridor operation, Danube and Odesa Oblast 184 times, using no fewer than: 61 Iskander CM and BM, 5 Kh-59/Kh-69 ALCMs, 12 Kh-31P ARMs, 4 Kalibr SLCMs, 4 Oniks AShM, 2 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ALBM, 38 GBUs, 5 USVs, 1600 strike and decoy UAVs.

In November 2025, 12 violations (554.382 tons) of the EU/US embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) to the transshipment points and EU/US ports from the Baltic Sea were recorded. The voyages were made by tankers belonging to shipowners registered in Greece, China, Oman and Germany.

In November 2025, 2 violations (232.650 tons) of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Baltic Sea were recorded. The voyages were made by tankers belonging to shipowners registered in Greece.

In November 2025, 153 violations of the export of Russian crude oil and petroleum products from the Baltic Sea were recorded. 13.2 mln tons of Russian crude oil and petroleum products were delivered through the Russian ports of the Baltic Sea.

Between January-November 2025, Russian military attacked the ports of Greater Odesa involved in the export corridor operation, Danube and Odesa Oblast 152 times, using no less than: 46 Iskander CM and BM; 5 Kh-59/Kh-69 ALCMs; 12 Kh-31P ARMs; 1 Kalibr SLCMs; 4 Oniks AShM; 3 GBUs; 5 USVs; 750 strike and decoy UAVs.

In November 2025, a total of 34 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk. Together they exported a total of about 5.1 million tons of oil, including 4.3 million tons to the EU and 745 thousands tons to other countries.

In November 2025, 12 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) from the Black Sea were recorded. 7 of violations involved the delivery of petroleum products to a transshipment points off the coasts of Cyprus and Romania. 4 direct voyages were made to the ports of the EU countries and one voyage was performed to the US. In November 2025, 298.716 tons of Russian petroleum products were delivered in violation of the embargo.