Sberbank of Russia wants to raise panic in Ukraine with its forecasts, analyst says


The analysis prepared by specialists at the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia is knowingly untruthful and built on unreliable data. The purpose of this research is to raise panic and create problems for Ukraine in connection with the forthcoming signing of the Association Agreement with the European Union.

President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center Oleksandr Okhrimenko this told to Ukrinform, commenting on Sberbank of Russia's outlook on the possible currency crisis in Ukraine.

The analyst regretted that such a reputable bank has been engaged in a trade war.

"They have deliberately distorted data on the balance of payments of Ukraine, knowingly have not taken into account indicators of the international investment position posted on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine. And most importantly - they have virtually excluded from the analysis data on the purchase and sale of currencies on the interbank currency market of Ukraine this year," Okhrimenko said.

According to the analyst, the main purpose of this research was not an assessment of the real state of the economy and the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, and the desire to raise panic and cause problems for Ukraine in connection with the forthcoming signing of the Association Agreement with the EU.

"If we look at the performance of credit-default swaps, which are posted on the website of the international rating agency S&P, then the probability of default of Ukrainian eurobonds is currently estimated at 42 percent. A month ago, this figure was 46 percent. For nearly three years, the probability of default of Ukrainian Eurobonds, according to credit-default swaps, has been estimated at around 40 percent. Though this figure is also quite overvalued," the analyst emphasized.

The expert recalled that Ukraine over the past three years has always on time and in full paid off all debts on foreign obligations. And this year, Ukraine paid a large part of the IMF loan without any complications and delays.

As Ukrinform reported, the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia estimated the probability of a currency crisis in Ukraine over the next year at 82 percent.

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