Crimea Under Occupation

The Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and the BlackSeaNews continues to publish the analytical report of the Monitoring Group: Situation in the Black Sea During the Russian Aggression Against Ukraine in 2022-2024.

On the eve of the large-scale aggression in February 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSFRF) consisted of approximately 80 warships and boats and up to 200 support vessels stationed at 7 naval bases. At the same time, due to the chronic underfunding of the national fleet development programs, the Ukrainian Navy had a rather modest ship and boat composition. 

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews presents the database of Russian warships, boats and vessels destroyed or damaged by the Ukrainian Defense Forces since February 2022.

Between January and March 2024, i.e. over 91 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 37 attacks on targets in the occupied Crimean Peninsula and on ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. These included: approximately 10 attacks on Sevastopol; 5 on Russian Navy ships in the Black and Azov Seas; no less than 10 on Yevpatoria, Saky, Black Sea and Razdolnensky districts (Western Crimea); about 2 on Dzhankoy district; at least 2 on Feodosia region; and at least 3 attacks along the Black Sea coast of the Russian Federation.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring, presents a database of attacks by Ukrainian drones and missiles on the territory of occupied Crimea, Russian ships in the Black Sea and objects on the Black Sea coast in January-February 2024. In January-February 2024, i.e., over 60 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 26 attacks on targets in Crimean peninsula and Russian Black Sea Fleet, averaging one in three days.

In January-February 2024, for attacks from Crimea on the Ukrainian regions the Russian Armed Forces used at least: 6 units of Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, 3 of which — in February; 11 Iskander-type ballistic missiles, 2 of which — in February; P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles were not used in January-February 2024; 392 Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs launched from Crimea and from the regions of the Russian Federation together, 169 of which — in February; 82 Shahed-136/131 UAVs Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs launched from Crimea, without simultaneous attacks from the RF.

In January 2024, the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) continued to strike all of Ukraine, using the temporarily occupied territory (TOT) of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (ARC) and the adjacent Black Sea as launchpads for strike and reconnaissance drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles. As predicted, Russia has increased the share of Shahed-136/131 attack drones in its strike arsenal, primarily due to the start of its mass production within the country

Over the 12 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 230 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (no launches registered since September 25, 2023); at least 1250 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launches, not including those launched from the Russian regions; 62 Iskander ballistic missiles and 25 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. The Monitoring Group of the BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Based on the results of our own monitoring presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-December 2023.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring, presents a database of attacks by Ukrainian drones and missiles on the territory of occupied Crimea and Russian ships in the Black Sea in January-December 2023. From January to December 2023, i.e., over 365 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 184 attacks on targets in Crimean peninsula and Russian Black Sea Fleet, averaging one every other day.

Over the 11 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 230 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (no launches registered since September 25, 2023); at least 750 Shahed-136/131 UAVs launches, not including those launched from the Russian regions; 62 Iskander ballistic missiles and 25 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. The Monitoring Group of the BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Based on the results of our own monitoring presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-November 2023.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring, presents a database of attacks by Ukrainian drones and missiles on the territory of occupied Crimea and Russian ships in the Black Sea in January-November 2023. From January to November 2023, i.e., over 334 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 168 attacks on targets in Crimean peninsula and Russian Black Sea Fleet, averaging one every other day.

From January to October 2023, i.e., over 304 days, the Ukrainian Defense Forces carried out at least 155 attacks on targets in Crimean peninsula and Russian Black Sea Fleet, averaging one every other day. Among those: in Sevastopol – at least 37 attacks, or 24%; on BSF ships at sea – at least 19 attacks, or 12%; in Yevpatoriya, Saksky, Chornomorsky and Rozdolnensky districts (Western Crimea) – at least 25 attacks, or 16%; in Dzhankoy region— at least 14 attacks, or 9%; in Feodosia region – at least 12 attacks, or 7.6%; on Kerch Bridge – at least 4 attacks.

Rule 41 of customary international humanitarian law states that the Occupying Power must prevent the illicit export of cultural property from occupied territory and must return illicitly exported property to the competent authorities of the occupied territory. However, the Russian Federation deliberately violates the provisions of international law and implements a state policy in the occupied territories of Ukraine aimed at destroying Ukraine's cultural heritage. Russia has organized the illegal large-scale export of cultural property from Ukraine. The organization of the illegal trafficking of cultural property from Ukraine is an element of Russian state policy.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring of Russian missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks on the regions of Ukraine from the territory of occupied Crimea in January-September 2023, publishes an analytical report and forecasts about further use by Russia of the occupied peninsula’s territory for aggression against Ukraine and creating a threat to the countries of the region in 2023. We hope that our experts’ opinions, conclusions, and forecasts will clearly demonstrate to politicians, diplomats, analysts, and journalists in countries supporting Ukraine's struggle against the Russian invasion that without the liberation of Crimea, it is impossible to talk about victory in this war.

Over the first 9 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 230 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – totaling 26 missiles monthly – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, whose main base is in the occupied Crimean Peninsula, 590 – 65 monthly —Shahed-136/131 UAVs, 40 Iskander ballistic missiles and 17 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. The Monitoring Group of the BlackSeaNews and the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies Based on the results of our own monitoring presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-September 2023.