Russian Blood-Soaked Export

In January 2023, under the embargo, the volume of Russia’s crude oil exports from Black Sea ports to EU countries was 1.27 million tons. Compared to December 2022, it increased by 25%. Russian oil was transported to 4 EU countries: Greece – 961,124 tons (75% of the total volume), Spain – 159,058 tons, the Netherlands – 103,755 tons, and Slovenia – 50,344 tons. Of the 12 oil tankers that carried Russian crude oil to EU countries in January 2023, 8 tankers are owned and operated by companies registered in Greece, Denmark, and Cyprus. The remaining 4 – by companies registered in Turkey, the Marshall Islands, and the subsidiaries of the Russian Sovcomflot, registered in Dubai.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring, presents a database of seaborne exports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russian ports on the Black and Azov Seas in January 2023. In total, in January 2023, 200 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 12.9 million tons of cargo.

In January 2023, 12 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Black Sea were recorded. All of them involved the delivery of oil to a transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf off the coast of Greece. 6 such voyages were made by tankers belonging to companies from Greece, 2 – by a shipowner from Turkey, 4 voyages were made by tankers belonging to companies from Denmark, UAE, Cyprus and Marshall Islands one per each. A total of 1,274,281 tons of Russian crude oil were delivered to the transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf in violation of the embargo, compared with 1,019,247 tons in December 2022.

In January 2023, a total of 44 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 5.9 million tons of oil, including 3.2 million tons to the EU and 2.7 million tons to other countries.

According to preliminary estimates, in January 2023, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports from the Black Sea will increase significantly. This growth will be from 15 to 35%, and the export volume will reach 3.4-4.2 million tons compared with 2.9 million tons in December 2022. This exceeds the increase in Russia’s crude oil exports from the Black Sea ports that occurred in December 2022 - the first month after the introduction of the EU embargo and the price cap on Russia’s oil exports. This growth was achieved mainly due to India. In December 2022, 75.3% of Russia’s oil was not subject to the price cap because it was shipped by tankers that did not belong to EU shipowners.

In December 2022, despite the embargo that came into effect on 5 December 2022, there wasn’t any significant decline in maritime exports of Russia’s crude oil from the Black Sea to EU countries. The volume of exports remained at the level of 1 million tons, the same as in November 2022. The volume of Russia’s Black Sea crude oil exports to EU countries, starting from the embargo date of 5 December 2022, even increased slightly: it amounted to about 560,000 tons - or 55% of the total volume of Russia’s Black Sea crude oil exports to EU countries in December 2022. The shipowners of all oil tankers that arrived with a cargo of Russian crude oil in EU countries in violation of the embargo in December 2022 are companies registered in Greece.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring, presents a database of seaborne exports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russian ports on the Black and Azov Seas in December 2022. In total, in December 2022, 216 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 14.4 million tons of cargo.

In December 2022, a total of 55 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 7.4 million tons of oil, including 5.7 million tons to the EU and 1.7 million tons to other countries.

After the June 2022 decision on the future EU embargo, during the 6-month transition period, nine EU countries and the US together imported 9.3 million tons of Russian crude oil at the estimated total cost of $5.3 billion or about $0.9 billion per month. Consequently, after the embargo kicks in, assuming that Russia doesn’t find alternative buyers for its Black Sea oil, its future unearned income can be roughly estimated at the same level. Following the EU decision on sanctioning Russian maritime crude oil export starting December 5, 2022, in November, the total volume of Russia’s maritime crude oil export experienced a significant drop by almost 1 million tons.

In November 2022, 184 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 10.3 million tons of cargo, including 2.6 million tons of Russian crude oil, 4.6 million tons of Kazakh CPC crude oil, and 3.1 million tons of Russian petroleum products.

In November 2022, a total of 32 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 4.6 million tons of oil, including 3.1 million tons to the EU and 1.5 million tons to other countries.

Following the EU decision to introduce sanctions on the maritime export of Russian crude oil starting December 5, 2022 — Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 of June 3, 2022 — we’ve observed the following trends: retention of the total volume of Russian crude oil Black Sea exports at 3.5 million tons; certain decrease in exports to EU countries; generally unsuccessful attempts of Russia to replace exports to the EU with those to other countries. The much talked about in the media reorientation of the crude oil exports to India and China, in fact, hasn’t materialized. A month before the introduction of sanctions, Russia has been able to compensate for only up to 4% of its crude oil exports to EU countries.

After a significant May 2022 surge of 13.9 million tons per month, the total volume of Russian sea exports of crude oil and petroleum products from the Black and Azov sea ports, has been showing a steady downward trend to 10.7 million tons in October 2022. In view of the situation, Russia has been making consistent attempts to reorient its crude oil export flows from the EU+ states to other countries of the world. However, considering those a success would be premature. The introduction of the European embargo on the import of oil on oil mixtures may lead to Russian Black Sea crude oil exports crashing by half.

The EU has ruled to introduce an embargo on Russian oil imported by sea starting December 5, 2022, and oil products – starting February 5, 2023. Meanwhile, in September 2022, 183 tankers of shipowners from 23 countries transported Russian and Caspian Kazakh-Russian crude oil and petroleum products from the Black and Azov Sea ports. Of those, 95 (52%) belong to shipowners from the EU and other western states. After the embargo kicks in, shipowners from those countries should be ready to find a new job for their 95 tankers. This mainly applies to Greek shipowners, whose share in that tanker fleet is 80% (76 tankers).

If in July 2022 the RF crude oil was imported from the Black and Azov seas to 7 EU countries, in August that number dropped to 4. Only Greece, the traditional leader of our ranking, almost doubled its imports that month raising its share in the Russian Black Sea-Azov crude oil EU imports from 34 to 61%. There have been no signs of any exports reorientation to India and China. Moreover, in August, for the first time since the beginning of the large-scale war, India actually reduced imports by 30.27%, or 266,875 tons, while China did not import a single ton of Russia’s Black Sea oil.