The Duration of Artificial Delays of Vessels in the Kerch Strait Returns to Pre-Epidemic Figures. The Monitoring for July 2020

Andrii KLYMENKO
Tetyana GUCHAKOVA
Olha KORBUT
The Monitoring Group of BlackSeaNews and
the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews is glad to share with you the latest in a series of our monthly studies on Russia's economic war against Ukraine in the Sea of Azov.

1. In July 2020, the average duration of artificial delays of vessels en route from the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov (Mariupol and Berdiansk) by the RF was 21.4 hours. This is almost 2 times longer than in June 2020 (the yearly average for 2019 was 29.9 hours, in April 2020 – 16.6 hours, in May – 10.1 hours, in June – 11.6 hours) – see Chart 1.

8 out of 112 vessels (7.1%) went to the Sea of Azov without a stop in the Kerch Strait, in the previous month, there were 8.9% of such vessels.

Another 32 vessels (28.6%) went to the Sea of Azov with a delay of 1-6 hours, which equals the average wait time before the beginning of the de facto blockade. In the previous month, there were 46.4% of such vessels. Thus, 35.7% of the vessels entered the Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov in a mode that can be considered normal. In June, this proportion was much higher – 55.3%.

13 out of 112 vessels (11.6%) were waiting for permission to pass through the Kerch Strait from 50 to 92 hours, and another 28 vessels (25%) – from 24 to 48 hours.

Examples of the longest delays of vessels en route to the ports of Mariupol or Berdiansk are given in Table 1.

2. In July 2020, vessels carrying exports from Mariupol and Berdiansk were delayed at the exit from the Sea of Azov by the Russian Federation for an average of 35.3 hours. This is 2.4 times longer than in June 2020 (the yearly average for 2019 was 37.4 hours, in April 2020 – 19.9 hours, in May – 14.5 hours, in June – 14.8 hours) – see Chart 2.

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25.6% of “Mariupol” and “Berdiansk” vessels passed from the Sea of ​​Azov to the Black Sea in a mode that can be considered normal, in the previous month, there were 47.9% of such vessels.

26 vessels carrying exports from Mariupol and Berdiansk (30.2%) were waiting for permission to pass through the Kerch Strait from 49 to 147 hours (6 days!), and another 17 vessels (19,8 %) – from 30 to 48 hours.

Examples of the longest delays of vessels en route from the ports of Mariupol or Berdiansk are given in Table 2.

From 22 October 2018 to August 2020, there were no open sea detentions of vessels in the Sea of Azov on the move from/to Berdiansk and Mariupol due to the fact that the Ukrainian Navy’s boats escorted the vessels – see Figure 3.

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Conclusions

The duration of artificial delays of "Mariupol" and "Berdiansk" vessels before obtaining permission to pass through the Kerch Strait in July 2020 shows that the effect of fear of infection with the COVID-19 virus in the Coast Guard of the FSB Border Service (which led to a decrease in inspections in previous months) is over.

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For reference: the areas where freedom of navigation was violated are marked on the map – see Figure 4.

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This publication has been produced with the support of the European Endowment for Democracy (EED). Its contents do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of EED. Responsibility for the information and views expressed in this publication lies entirely with the authors.