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Based on the results of our own monitoring (see Table 1), the Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies and the BlackSeaNews editorial board presents the database Russian Missile and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Attacks on the Regions of Ukraine from the Occupied Crimea in January-May 2023. Over the first 5 months of 2023, the Russian Armed Forces used the occupied Crimea to strike at the regions of Ukraine, including with: 93 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles – totaling 19 missiles monthly – from ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, whose main base is in the occupied Crimean Peninsula, 37 – 7 monthly —Shahed-136/131 UAVs, 21 Iskander ballistic missiles and 3 P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles.

Just before the large-scale attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia had formed in the Mediterranean Sea an unprecedented grouping of warships from all four of its fleets. Specifically, in the first decade of February 2022, Russia's «Mediterranean squadron» included 29 ships and boats, specifically: 11 missile ships, 6 large amphibious assault ships (LST), a patrol corvette, 2 minesweepers, an anti-submarine warfare boat, 2 reconnaissance ships, 4 auxiliary supply vessels, and 2 tugs. In the late summer of 2022, Russia began a gradual withdrawal of its main warships from the region. So, by May 2023, the number of missile ships in the Russian «Mediterranean squadron» had decreased to 3 — the smallest number since February 2022.

No ships arrived at Ukrainian ports through the grain corridor from 9 to 20 May 2023. There have been no interruptions for such a long time since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This happened soon after 13 April 2023, when Russia for the first time formally compiled a detailed list of demands for the lifting of sanctions in return for its further participation in the Grain Initiative. The demands were presented in the form of an ultimatum to the UN Secretariat, although the UN cannot resolve the issue of easing sanctions.

In February 2023, exports of Russian petroleum products decreased by 7.8%; however, as early as March 2023, they increased by 21.5%. The March 2023 volumes exceeded all monthly results in the last 12 months except December 2022. This happened due to violations of the embargo on exports to EU and G7 countries and an increase in exports to countries that had not imposed sanctions. At the same time, the proportion of EU+ countries in the exports of Russian petroleum products from Black Sea ports dropped from 71.1% in May 2022 to 20.3% in March 2023. Turkey remains the largest importer of seaborne petroleum products from Russia.

The January-March 2023 downward trend in the number of violations of the EU embargo on Russian seaborne crude oil imports from Black Sea ports was reversed in April-May 2023. The volume of illegal exports also increased in this period: in April, they grew by 68.2%, and in 20 days of May, they rose by 40.0%. In contrast to March 2023, when Russian oil was delivered from the Black Sea only to transhipment points, in May, it has been shipped or is being shipped to 2 ports in the Netherlands and Spain.

According to the position paper of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, “Strategic partnership is a type of interstate relations, built as a consistent system of interaction between states towards fulfilling common strategic tasks and pursuing common strategic interests and goals. Unlike alliance relations, strategic partnership does not involve a rigid system of political, economic, humanitarian, or security obligations.”

In April 2023, 17 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) from the Black Sea were recorded. 1 direct voyage with petroleum products from Russian ports to the ports of EU countries and USA each were made. The remaining 15 violations involved the delivery of petroleum products to a transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf off the coast of Greece.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring, presents a database of seaborne exports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russian ports on the Black and Azov Seas in April 2023. In total, in April 2023, 252 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 16.4 million tons of cargo.

In April 2023, 6 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Black Sea were recorded. All of them involved the delivery of oil to a transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf off the coast of Greece. 4 such voyages were made by tankers belonging to companies from Greece, shipowners from Turkey and UAE performed 1 voyage each. A total of 801,594 tons of Russian crude oil were delivered to the transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf in violation of the embargo, compared with 476,449 tons in March 2023 and 975,520 tons in February 2023.

In April 2023, a total of 54 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 7.6 million tons of oil, including 4.1 million tons to the EU and 3.5 million tons to other countries.

In March 2023, the exports of Russian petroleum products from Black Sea ports to EU and G7 countries amounted to 737,856 tons, although they should have stopped completely. 11 embargo-violating tankers were recorded in February 2023 and 17 ones – in March. In March 2023, the destinations of these tankers were not only EU countries but also the USA, including direct deliveries to the port of Wilmington, North Carolina, the USA, and the port of Rouen, France. The rest of the destinations were transhipment areas off the coast of Greece and Malta. 17 out of 28 embargo-violating tankers, or 60.7%, belong to shipowners from EU countries.

According to the position paper of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, “Strategic partnership is a type of interstate relations, built as a consistent system of interaction between states towards fulfilling common strategic tasks and pursuing common strategic interests and goals. Unlike alliance relations, strategic partnership does not involve a rigid system of political, economic, humanitarian, or security obligations.”

In March 2023, Russia's crude oil exports from the Black Sea ports set a record of 5,565,874 tons, which is significantly higher than in any previous month since April 2022. The record 2.7 times growth has been driven by exports to countries other than the EU, the G7 and the rest that supported the oil embargo. Russia clearly is not planning to reduce either oil production or its exports, thus, all Russian statements about the alleged production drop are likely just a manipulation aimed at pushing up the world oil prices. The policy seems to be coordinated with OPEC+. There is no shortage of tankers for these exports.

In March 2023, 18 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) from the Black Sea were recorded. 2 direct voyages with petroleum products from Russian ports to the ports of EU countries and 1 voyage to USA were made. The remaining 15 violations involved the delivery of petroleum products to a transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf off the coast of Greece.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring, presents a database of seaborne exports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russian ports on the Black and Azov Seas in March 2023. In total, in March 2023, 245 tankers exported oil and petroleum products from Russian ports (excluding exports to Bulgaria and Romania). They transported a total of about 17 million tons of cargo.