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In August 2023, 17 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) from the Black Sea were recorded. 3 direct voyages from Russian ports to those of EU countries were made. The remaining 14 voyages included delivery of petroleum products to transshipment points: 11 – in the Laconian Gulf off the coast of Greece, 1 – off the coast of the Greek island of Crete, and 2 – off the coast of Malta.

Starting from March 2023, the second month of the embargo, the exports of Russian petroleum products from the ports of the Black and Azov Seas have been setting new records almost monthly, setting an absolute one of 4,173,189 tons in July. It should be noted, however, that the number of violations of the embargo on maritime crude oil exports, meanwhile, decreased by 80.4%. The reasons why the EU decision banning the offending tankers from entering EU ports affects the crude oil exports, but doesn't affect the petroleum product exports, remains unclear.

The gigantic 3-fold surge retail trade turnover in Crimea and Sevastopol in early 2023 was due solely to the presence of a huge number of Russian servicemen, i.e. men with a healthy appetite. The vast majority of "new Crimean tourists" in 2022-23 are wearing Russian army camouflage. There is also a "new medical tourism" -- that is, treatment and rehabilitation of thousands of wounded soldiers who now use previously civilian hospitals, as well as a "human shield" made of the children vising Artek.

In July 2023, the exports of Russian crude oil from Black Sea ports dropped by nearly 1.4 million tons (-27.2%). EU countries accounted for 67.2% of this decrease due to a reduction in the number of embargo violations. This happened as a result of the EU decision that prohibits tankers committing such violations from entering the ports of EU countries, which came into effect on 24 July 2023. In contrast to crude oil, in July 2023, the seaborne exports of Russian petroleum products continued to grow and reached a new record high.

From 5 December 2022, when the embargo on Russian crude oil imports came into effect, to 31 July 2023, 56 violations of the embargo were recorded. 14 of them were direct visits of tankers to the ports of EU countries. The remaining 42 cases included delivery of crude oil to transshipment points off the coasts of EU states. During that time, about 6.9 million tons of crude oil were delivered to EU ports and transshipment points off the coasts of EU states. Out of these 56 voyages of crude oil tankers, 30 (53.6%) were made by vessels owned by shipowners from Greece, 2 – by those from Denmark, 1 – Malta, 1 – Latvia, and 1 – Cyprus. That is, 35 voyages (65%, or almost two-thirds of the total number) were made by tankers owned by EU shipowners.

One doesn't need to be a tourism professional to comprehend the fundamental incompatibility of tourism and military operations. So, to understand the realities of Crimea’s 2023 tourist season, it’s enough to read the list of unmanned air and sea drone attacks on Crimean military targets between June 1-July 30, 2023 and look at the tourist instructions on passing the Kerch Bridge inspections, with 10 of them directly impacting automobile and rail transportation.

Long periods, starting from 9 May 2023, when no ships arrived at the ports, were explained not by weather conditions, but solely by the blocking of inspections by Russian JCC inspectors under various pretexts.

The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on the results of its own monitoring (see Table 1), presents a database of seaborne exports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russian ports on the Black and Azov Seas in July 2023.

In July 2023, a total of 45 tankers exported CPC oil from the Russian port of Novorossiysk, excluding the exports to Bulgaria and Romania. Together they exported a total of about 6.3 million tons of oil, including 4.4 million tons to the EU and 1.9 million tons to other countries.

In July 2023, 2 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil from the Black Sea were recorded. All of them involved the delivery of oil to a transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf off the coast of Greece. 1 such voyage was made by tanker belonging to company from Greece, 1 – by a shipowner from Turkey. A total of 222,316 tons of Russian crude oil were delivered to the transshipment point in the Laconian Gulf in violation of the embargo, compared with 1,134,445 tons in June 2023 and 1,554,020 tons in May 2023.

In July 2023, 22 violations of the EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian petroleum products (excluding crude oil) from the Black Sea were recorded. 5 direct voyages from Russian ports to those of EU countries were made. The remaining 17 voyages included delivery of petroleum products to transshipment points: 14 – in the Laconian Gulf off the coast of Greece, 1 – off the coast of the Greek island of Crete, and 2 – off the coast of Malta.

The Crimean Titan may become part of a large titanium holding company being created in Russia by the companies closely affiliated with the Rotenberg brothers or a «fallen hero» holding back the Ukrainian offensive. Either one of the diametrically opposed scenarios is a real possibility in the near future. In any case, in recent months, Crimean patriots have been regularly reporting that Russia has been taking steps to turn the Crimean Titan into a fortification on the path of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Since May this year, Ukrainian officials have been also voicing such opinion.

For centuries, Russia has sought to warp the Black Sea balance of power for its own gain. Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, destabilizing allied Black Sea military and commercial operations while maintaining Russian commercial shipping became a natural priority.

In June 2023, the growth in Russian crude oil exports from the ports on the Black and Azov Seas continued. These seaborne exports amounted to 4,994,141 tons (a slight month-on-month increase of 22,000 tons, or 0.44%). However, in June, an important change took place. Whereas in April and May 2023 the growth was achieved due to EU countries (because of embargo violations), in June 2023, the high level of exports was (as well as in March) maintained by shipment to non-EU countries. This change occurred since tankers violating the embargo will be prohibited from entering the ports of EU countries from 24 July 2023.

Initially, a direct voyage from a Russian port to a Ukrainian one during the war struck us as a coincidence that, however, prompted us to start checking for similar voyages by other vessels. As a result, we've easily identified a fairly significant number of vessels that arrived at Ukrainian ports having previously called at the Russian ports. For security reasons, including counteracting possible sabotage, special decisions should be made to prevent maritime businesses from chartering vessels that operate to Russian ports for the transportation of goods to/from Ukrainian ports or simply ban such vessels from entering Ukrainian ports.