Moldovan Economics Ministry expects 3.5 per cent economic growth in 2013

Moldova’s economy will increase by 3.5 per cent in 2013, mostly due to the re-launch of the agricultural sector after the last year’s severe drought, according to the Economics Ministry’s forecasts.

«It is a rather pessimistic forecast, we expect a 3-4-per-cent growth, » acting Economics Minister Valeriu Lazar said at a round table on Moldovan economy’s evolution in 2012 and on forecasts for 2013-2016. He added that he did not agree with those who had said that the positions lost by agriculture in 2012 would be fully recovered in 2013, but an 18-per-cent growth was rather realistic. «Only due to this factor, one expects the GP growth by 1.6 per cent,» Lazar said.

But, some participants in the round table said that the results will be others than forecasted, if the incertitude condition created after the government’s dismissal preserves.

According to the prospects, the Moldovan economy will record in 2013 a growth exceeding the average in the region. Russia, who is Moldova’s main trade partner, expects a 3.7-per-cent raise in the GDP, Ukraine – 3.5 per cent and Romania expects a 1.6-per-cent economic growth.

The Economics Ministry foresees in 2013 an 18-per-cent increase in agriculture, a 2.5-per-cent in industry, a 7.5-per-cent in exports and a 6-per-cent in imports. The investments into tangible assets for a long term will increase by 5 per cent. If the prognoses of the macroeconomic indexes are rather pessimistic, than the increase in the average monthly salary by 10 per cent is an optimistic one.

As well as the Moldovan officials, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Expert Grup Independent Analytical centre anticipate an economic growth of 3.5 per cent for Moldova in 2013. «For 2013, the modelling exercise presents an economic growth of 2.4 per cent,» said the authors of the book „Tendinte in Economia Moldovei” (Trends in Moldovan economy) published by the Institute of Economy, Finance and Statistics. However they do not exclude that corrections might be made when analysing the entire 2012 year.

The forecast for 2014-2016 provides for an annual GDP increase of 4.5 -5 per cent, a relative appreciation of the Moldovan Leu currency exchange rate up to 12.02 lei per dollar by late 2016, as well as for an inflation rate of 3.7 per cent in 2014, of 4.9 per cent in 2015 and of 4.5 per cent in 2016, respectively.

The GDP was of 87.8 billion lei in 2012, decreasing by 0.8 per cent against 2011. In whole, the GDP’s diminishing was conditioned by the decrease in foreign demand for products produced in Moldova and by the weakening of the interior one due to final consumption. The most significant influence on the GDP’s decrease had the gross VAT created in agriculture, which dropped over 23 per cent.

Adapted from Moldpres


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