Seaborne exports of Russian oil and petroleum products from the Black Sea between the two embargoes. Main trends: Crude oil

The Monitoring Group of BlackSeaNews
and the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies


The Monitoring Group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and BlackSeaNews, based on its own monitoring results, reports on the main trends in seaborne export of Russia’s oil and petroleum products from the Black Sea between the two embargoes (the first embargo – on Russian seaborne crude oil exports to EU countries – has been effective since 5 December 2022; the second one – on Russian petroleum products – will come into effect on 5 February 2023).

Summary

According to preliminary estimates, in January 2023, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports from the Black Sea will increase significantly. This growth will be from 15 to 35%, and the volume of exports will reach 3.4-4.2 million tons compared with 2.9 million tons in December 2022 - depending on how many tankers with Russian crude oil will pass through the Turkish straits in the last days of January 2023.

This exceeds the 14.4% increase in Russian crude oil exports from Black Sea ports, which occurred in December 2022 - the first month after the EU embargo and the price cap on Russia’s oil exports to other countries (in case European oil tankers and insurance companies are used for this) came into effect. This growth occurred mainly due to India.

For a relatively small volume of crude oil exports from the Black Sea in December 2022, Russia managed to replace 2/3 of the Greek oil tankers that previously shipped Russian oil to non-EU countries with vessels from non-European states. In December 2022, 24.7% of this oil was subject to the price cap, and 75.3% of the oil did not fall within the scope of the restriction as it was transported by tankers that did not belong to EU shipowners.

The full text of the report

As we reported earlier, in December 2022, and in particular after 5 December 2022, when the embargo came into effect, there wasn’t any significant decline in seaborne exports of Russia’s crude oil from the Black Sea to EU countries.

It remained at the level of 1 million tons, the same as in November 2022.

Violations of the embargo by Greece, Spain, and Italy, which were reported, were the main factor behind this seemingly strange phenomenon.

At the same time, in December 2022, the exports of Russia’s crude oil from the Black Sea to non-EU countries increased by 0.4 million tons (27.7%) compared to November 2022 and amounted to about 1.9 million tons.

This was not the highest volume, as the maximum export volume reached about 2.3 million tons in June and September 2022.

Thus, the total volume of Russia’s crude oil exports from Black Sea ports in December 2022 – the first month after the EU embargo and the price cap on Russia’s oil exports to other countries (in case European oil tankers and insurance companies are used for this) came into effect – increased compared to November and amounted to about 2.9 million tons (See Table 1 for details).

The increase in Russian crude oil exports from Black Sea ports in December 2022 occurred mainly due to India. This country has been the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude oil (See Table 2 for details).

Now, let’s look at who transported Russia’s crude oil from the Black Sea to non-EU countries in December 2022, after the price cap was introduced.

Starting from 05 December 2022, when the price cap was imposed, 10 tankers with Russian crude oil left the Black Sea for non-EU countries. The breakdown of these oil tankers by country of shipowner registration is as follows.

  • Greece – 3

  • Hong Kong, China – 2

  • The United Arab Emirates – 2 (of which 1 tanker is registered with a subsidiary of the Russian company Sovkomflot/Novoship)

  • Russia – 1

  • Turkey – 1

  • India – 1

According to our monitoring data, in December 2022, starting from 5 December 2022, the date of the price cap introduction, about 1.3 million tons of Russian oil were transported to non-EU countries. 24.7% of this oil was subject to the price cap, and 75.3% of the oil did not fall within the scope of the restriction as it was transported by tankers that did not belong to carriers from the EU. In absolute numbers, these were 3 and 7 tankers respectively (See Table 3 for details).

In the previous month, November 2022, Russia’s crude oil was transported to non-EU countries by 14 tankers, 9 of which, i.e. 64%, belonged to Greek shipowners.

Thus, for a relatively small volume of crude oil exports from the Black Sea in December 2022, Russia managed to replace 2/3 of the Greek oil tankers with vessels from other countries.

Note that among these tankers, we have not recorded any that could be confidently assumed to belong to the so-called "grey fleet," which had allegedly been purchased by Russia to circumvent the price cap.

And in conclusion, a few words about forecasts.

According to preliminary estimates by the Monitoring Group, in January 2023, Russia's seaborne crude oil exports from the Black Sea will increase significantly. This growth will be from 15 to 35%, and the volume of exports will reach 3.4-4.2 million tons compared with 2.9 million tons in December 2022 - depending on how many tankers with Russian crude oil will pass through the Turkish straits in the last days of January 2023.

In our next article in a few days, we will be able to look at the situation in more detail.

Table 1. The volume of Russia’s crude oil exports from Black Sea ports in April-December 2022

Month/Year 04/2022 05/2022 06/2022 07/2022 08/2022 09/2022 10/2022 11/2022 12/2022
Total Russia’s crude oil exports, tons 3,443,287   4,042,048   4,316,508   3,347,925   3,646,846  3,656,938   3,535,840   2,576,757   2,947,195  

including to EU ports 

1,603,981   2,181,857   2,066,667   1,584,674   1,697,819   1,352,965   1,538,939   1,067,397   1,019,247  

including to non-EU countries 

1,839,306   1,860,191   2,249,841   1,763,251   1,949,027   2,303,973   1,996,901   1,509,360   1,927,948  

 

Table 2. Exports of Russia’s crude oil from Black Sea ports to non-EU countries in April-December 2022

2022, tons 04/2022 05/2022 06/2022 07/2022 08/2022 09/2022 10/2022 11/2022 12/2022 +/- +/- %
Countries/ Total

1,839,306

1,860,191

2,249,841

1,763,251

1,949,027

2,303,973

1,996,901

1,509,360

1,927,948

+418,588

27.7%

India [IN]

898,590

880,238

882,955

881,667

614,792

893,580

456,695

429,218

733,588

+304,370

+70.9%

Turkey [TR]

264,481

113,563

634,608

540,162

731,906

683,405

915,004

341,119

266,557

-74,562

-21.9%

China [CN]

 

309,220

 

159,901

 

163,292

   

149,995

+149,995

 

Brazil [BR]

115,756

111,610

 

109,999

109,995

 

105,547

109,999

105,547

-4,452

-4.0%

UA Emirates [AE]

   

732,278

71,522

185,888

195,498

71,498

146,521

113,849

-32,672

-22.3

Russia [RU]

231,680

219,895

                 

Korea [KR]

 

109,999

                 

Singapore [SG]

 

115,666

   

158,531

 

219,687

109,570

220,376

110,806

101.1

Sri Lanka [LK]

115,691

               

 

 

Bahamas [BS]

106,085

       

112,684

103,560

107,115

 

-107,115

-100.0

St Lucia [LC]

107,023

                   

Tunisia [TN]

       

73,334

74,999

49,911

50,344

73,431

23,087

45.9

Oman [OM]

       

74,581

73,334

74,999

105,475

 

-105,475

-100.0

Malaysia [MY]

         

107,181

 

109,999

105,419

-4,580

-4.2

Saudi Arabia [SA]

               

159,186

159,186

 

 

Table 3. Shipping of Russia’s crude oil from the Black Sea in December 2022 to non-EU countries (shipping after the price cap came into effect is highlighted in grey)

#

Name

IMO

DWT

Flag

Port of departure

Actual Time of Departure

Port of destination

Estimated Time of Arrival

Shipowner

1

HORAE

Crude Oil Tanker

9413004

105419

Panama

RU KAVKAZ SOUTH ANCH

ATD: 2022-11-22 01:17

MY TPP
TANJUNG PELEPAS

Malaysia [MY]

ETA: 2022-12-27 18:00

Ship manager/Commercial manager FRACTAL MARINE DMCC Unit 157, Level 5, DMCC Business Centre, Jewellery & Gemplex 2, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Registered owner HELIOS LINES INC Care of Fractal Marine DMCC, Unit 157, Level 5, DMCC Business Centre, Jewellery & Gemplex 2, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

2

VLADIMIR TIKHONOV

Crude Oil Tanker

 

9311622

162397

Liberia

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-11-24 16:48

IN VAD
VADINAR

India [IN]

ETA: 2022-12-16 09:30

Ship manager/Commercial manager SUN SHIP MANAGEMENT Office OT 17-32, 17th Floor, Office Tower, Central Park Towers, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box 507065, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Registered owner BASSETT OCEANWAY LTD Care of SUN Ship Management (D) Ltd, Office OT 17-32, 17th Floor, Office Tower, Central Park Towers, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box 507065, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

3

LILA FUJAIRAH

Crude Oil Tanker

9328170

113849

Liberia

RU TUA
TUAPSE

ATD: 2022-11-25 06:25

AE FJR
FUJAIRAH

United Arab Emirates [AE]

ETA: 2022-12-13 16:00

Ship manager/Commercial manager MTM SHIP MANAGEMENT PTE LTD 13-01, 78, Shenton Way, Singapore 079120

Registered owner NORA SEAWAY LTD Care of MTM Ship Management Pte Ltd, 13-01, 78, Shenton Way, Singapore 079120

4

LEOPARD I

Crude Oil Tanker

 

9293117

159186

Liberia

RU NVS

ATD: 2022-11-26 07:43

SA JEDDAH ANCH

Saudi Arabia [SA]

ATA: 2022-12-16 23:30

Ship manager/Commercial manager LEOPARD I SHIPPING INC 80, Broad Street, Monrovia, Liberia.

Registered owner LEOPARD I SHIPPING INC 80, Broad Street, Monrovia, Liberia

5

CLYDE

Crude Oil Tanker

9269245

73431

Panama

RU TUA
TUAPSE

ATD: 2022-12-03 13:24

TN LSK
SKHIRA

Tunisia [TN]

ETA: 2022-12-17 16:00

Ship manager/Commercial manager CHEMNAV SHIPMANAGEMENT LTD National Road Athens, 6, Roupel Street, Athens-Lamia Road, Km 17, Kifisia, 145 64 Athens, Greece.

Registered owner CLYDE SHIPPING INVESTMENTS SA Care of Chemnav Shipmanagement Ltd, National Road Athens, 6, Roupel Street, Athens-Lamia Road, Km 17, Kifisia, 145 64 Athens, Greece

6

TYCHE 1

Crude Oil Tanker

9308077

150980

Panama

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-07 11:10

TR KORFEZ ANCH

Turkey [TR]

ATA: 2022-12-10 16:15

Ship manager/Commercial manager SHIP MANAGEMENT SERVICES LTD Room 602, 6th Floor, 168, Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong, China.

Registered owner NEMAN SHIPPING INC Care of Ship Management Services Ltd, Room 602, 6th Floor, 168, Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong, China.

7

BEKS INDIANA

Crude Oil Tanker

9323986

105547

Marshall Isl

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-07 04:48

BR TRM
TRAMANDAI

Brazil [BR]

ETA: 2022-12-31 09:00

Ship manager/Commercial manager BEKS GEMI ISLETMECILIGI VE TIC Kore Sehitleri Caddesi 48/50, Esentepe Mah, Sisli, 34394 Istanbul, Turkey.

Registered owner SIRIUS MARITIME & TRADING INC Care of Beks Gemi Isletmeciligi ve Ticaret AS (Beks Shipmanagement & Trading SA), Kore Sehitleri Caddesi 48/50, Esentepe Mah, Sisli, 34394 Istanbul, Turkey.

8

NS BORA

Crude Oil Tanker

9412335

156697

Liberia

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-08 17:37

IN VAD
VADINAR

India [IN]

ETA: 2023-01-02 10:30

Ship manager/Commercial manager SUN SHIP MANAGEMENT Office OT 17-32, 17th Floor, Office Tower, Central Park Towers, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box 507065, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Registered owner NS BORA SHIPPING INC Care of SUN Ship Management (D) Ltd, Office OT 17-32, 17th Floor, Office Tower, Central Park Towers, Dubai International Financial Centre, PO Box 507065, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

9

MINERVA KALLISTO

Crude Oil Tanker

9853008

112802

Greece

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-08 13:47

SG SIN
SINGAPORE

Singapore [SG]

ETA: 2023-01-02 18:00

Ship manager/Commercial manager MINERVA MARINE INC 141-143, Vouliagmenis Avenue & 1 Aiolou Street, Voula, 166 73 Athens, Greece.

Registered owner BUBO SHIPPING SA Care of Minerva Marine Inc, 141-143, Vouliagmenis Avenue & 1 Aiolou Street, Voula, 166 73 Athens, Greece

10

IKARA

Crude Oil Tanker

9321718

158920

Panama

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-10 01:54

IN SIK
SIKKA

India [IN]

ETA: 2023-01-06 14:30

Ship manager/Commercial manager FRACTAL MARINE DMCC Unit 157, Level 5, DMCC Business Centre, Jewellery & Gemplex 2, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Registered owner IKARA LINES INC Care of Fractal Marine DMCC, Unit 157, Level 5, DMCC Business Centre, Jewellery & Gemplex 2, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

11

MISCA

Crude Oil Tanker

9249312

149995

Panama

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-15 12:49

CN QDG
QINGDAO

China [CN]

ETA: 2023-01-24 16:00

Ship manager/Commercial manager CONRAD MANAGEMENT CO Block 2, ul Zolotorozhskiy Val 32, Moscow, 111033, Russia.

Registered owner ARVE SHIPPING INC Care of Conrad Management Co, Block 2, ul Zolotorozhskiy Val 32, Moscow, 111033, Russia.

12

EUROSTRENGTH

Crude Oil Tanker

9543524

104594

Liberia

RU TUA
TUAPSE

ATD: 2022-12-17 13:18

IN SIK
SIKKA

India [IN]

ETA: 2023-01-09 23:30

Ship manager/Commercial manager EUROTANKERS INC 5th Floor, 99, Akti Miaouli, 185 38 Piraeus, Greece.

Registered owner ALBERTI MARINE INCCare of Eurotankers Inc, 5th Floor, 99, Akti Miaouli, 185 38 Piraeus, Greece.

13

TYCHE 1

Crude Oil Tanker

9308077

150980

Panama

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-17 14:48

IN SIK
SIKKA

India [IN]

ETA: 2023-01-08 22:30

Ship manager/Commercial manager SHIP MANAGEMENT SERVICES LTD Room 602, 6th Floor, 168, Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong, China.

Registered owner NEMAN SHIPPING INC Care of Ship Management Services Ltd, Room 602, 6th Floor, 168, Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong, China.

14

ALEXIA

Crude Oil Tanker

9389966

107574

Marshall Islands

RU TAM
TAMAN

ATD: 2022-12-21 17:38

SG SIN
SINGAPORE

Singapore [SG]

 

ETA: 2023-01-18 07:00

Ship manager/Commercial manager MARINE TRUST LTD-MAI Vergoti Square, Glyfada, 166 75 Athens, Greece.

Registered owner MAGDALENA NAVIGATION CORP Care of Marine Trust Ltd, Vergoti Square, Glyfada, 166 75 Athens, Greece.

15

ODYSSEUS

Crude Oil Tanker

9332810

115577

St Kitts Nevis

RU NVS
 

ATD: 2022-12-24 13:44

TR KORFEZ ANCH

Turkey [TR]

ATA: 2022-12-27 22:21

Ship manager/Commercial manager GATIK SHIP MANAGEMENT M/S E-306, 3rd Floor, Eastern Business District, Neptune Magnet Mall, Lal Bahadur Shastri Road, Bhandup (W), Mumbai, 400078, India.

Registered owner NEW ODYSSEY INC Care of m/s Gatik Ship Management, E-306, 3rd Floor, Eastern Business District, Neptune Magnet Mall, Lal Bahadur Shastri Road, Bhandup (W), Mumbai, 400078, India.

* * *

Important notes:

a) The Russian Federation exports crude oil and petroleum products (fuel oil, gas oil, solar oil) from the ports on the Black and Azov Seas. They are exported by different types of vessels – crude oil tankers and oil/chemical tankers (or oil products tankers) respectively. Crude oil tankers are usually very large: in the Black Sea, one such tanker takes from 100 to 150 thousand tons of crude oil. Oil products tankers have a significantly lower freight-carrying capacity: the commonest are in the ranges of 3-5 and 25-30 thousand tons. The monthly ratio between the volume of exports of Russia’s crude oil and petroleum products is approximately 3:1.

b) Two separate streams of crude oil are exported from Black Sea ports: crude oil of the Russian Federation (from the ports of Novorossiysk, Taman, and Tuapse, from the transshipment points in the Kerch Strait and to the south of it) and crude oil of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) - from a separate terminal of the port of Novorossiysk. The CPC’s crude oil contains 80% of Kazakh oil and 20% of Russian oil. Russian oil is under international sanctions. Kazakh oil is not under sanctions, and this mixing creates a potential problem. For more details, see https://www.blackseanews.net/en/read/191374

c) In tables and figures presenting the volume of crude oil and petroleum products exports, the term DWT (deadweight) is used - a measure of how much weight a ship can carry. It is the sum of the weights of cargo, fuel, lubricants, technical and drinking water, passengers, luggage, crew, and provisions. When analysing the transportation of large volumes of oil and petroleum products, other types of cargoes carried by a ship do not significantly influence the results, since even on tankers with a deadweight of 100-150 thousand tons, the sum of the weights of fuel, water, provisions, and a small crew is in the hundreds of tons and does not affect the results of the analysis.

d) This analytical report does not take into account the export volume of crude oil and petroleum products from the Russian Federation to the Black Sea ports and transshipment points of Romania and Bulgaria.
Reference: In July 2022, these exports were estimated to be around 3.1 million tons (1.9 million tons to Romania and 1.2 million tons to Bulgaria). Of these volumes, Russia’s crude oil accounted for about 2.4 million tons (1.4 million tons to Romania and 1.0 million tons to Bulgaria).

e) In tables and figures, for convenience, the term "EU+" is used, which covers not only EU member states but also the USA, the UK, and Monaco. The appropriateness of such grouping is justified by the fact that the exports of oil and petroleum products of the Russian Federation to these countries are very insignificant.

f) In the database of oil tankers at the end of the article, “Crude oil tanker CPC” means that this tanker carries oil from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s terminal. Tankers carrying crude oil of the Russian Federation are marked as "Crude oil tankers."

 

* * *

This article has been prepared with the support of the European Union in Ukraine. The content of the article is the sole responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the position of the EU

Теми: