How Ukraine Destroyed the Russian Black Sea Fleet Without Having One of Its Own
by Andrii Klymenko, head of the monitoring group of the Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies and Chief Editor of BlackSeaNews
In truth, the defeat of the "famous and heroic" Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) is not only a military-strategic,
but also a geopolitical fact and a defining factor in the Ukraine-Russia war, one with regional and even global political significance that is reshaping the practice of naval warfare in modern conflicts.
Our research has repeatedly documented the full history of sinkings and damages to Russian BSF ships and boats: 22 destroyed, excluding those irreparable, and 20 damaged, including irreparable ones. However, today these numbers, and the percentages they represent, are no longer as important as they seemed a year ago.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces — particularly the Defense Intelligence (HUR), Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Unmanned Systems Forces, aviation, air defense, and of course the Ukrainian Navy itself — have not only surpassed the BSF, but effectively nullified its military value in a mid-size maritime theater such as the Black Sea.
This extraordinary turn now pushes naval strategists and practitioners worldwide to reconsider their assumptions. With drones recently downing helicopters and even jet aircraft, that reassessment is becoming increasingly urgent.
Just today, in fact, during a meeting with my colleagues Mykhailo Gonchar and Mykhailo Samus, we reflected on how World War II ended the era of massive artillery warships — battleships and heavy cruisers — ushering in the age of aircraft carriers and naval aviation.
For the next 80 years, the world’s navies have regarded carrier strike groups worth hundreds of millions, or even billions, of dollars — centered on large, preferably nuclear-powered, aircraft carriers supported by missile cruisers, destroyers, frigates, and so forth — as the main surface offensive force.
Thanks to Ukrainian innovations, however, the war in the Black Sea has demonstrated that in waters such as the Black, Mediterranean, and Red seas, as well as coastal waters in other regions, the presence of small unmanned aerial and naval platforms equipped with missile armaments and electronic warfare capabilities renders surface warships little more than very expensive targets.
But let us leave the question of whether it is worth spending millions, or even billions, on these sea monsters that can be destroyed for “pennies” to admirals and politicians, and return to the realities of the Black Sea.
Assuming Ukraine’s continued rapid development of its “mosquito” and unmanned fleets, the BSF in its current state — despite still possessing several missile ships — has effectively become null and void.
It cannot safely venture even a modest distance — 35 to 40 km in land terms — from Novorossiysk, that is, beyond the protective reach of coastal air defense and anti-drone systems.
Therefore, it cannot interfere with commercial shipping or, as it is fashionable to say, logistics, to enemy ports — the primary task of any fleet in wartime.
Russia is, in fact, fortunate that Ukraine complies with international conventions regarding attacks on civilian ships, because otherwise Moscow would be unable to safeguard maritime transport to its Black Sea ports — at least, not yet.
Moreover, the BSF has completely lost the capacity to conduct amphibious landings, something it once planned and even attempted in the early weeks of the Great War.
Such a fleet can no longer even remain at its main base in Sevastopol — something the families of BSF sailors already understand — while also having lost most of its ship repair facilities.
Photo: HUR servicemen at presentation of the latest MAGURA surface drones
In other words, this now “resort fleet” is simply wasting enormous funds, a fact that is no longer a secret even among Russian war enthusiasts. Meanwhile, those with any real naval knowledge resort only to profanity when assessing the situation on social media.
Needless to say, Ukraine must not rest on its laurels, as Russia has begun building its own naval drones and experimenting with various countermeasures to unmanned platforms. Naval drone battles in the Black Sea are therefore very likely.
But the once beautiful, elegant, and fearsome BSF, armed with subsonic Kalibr missiles, which have proven completely ineffective, is already a relic of the past.
The HUR film Naval Battle: The Era of Drones can be viewed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUxjEb_WdfU&t=6s
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